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How Close Was It: The 2011-12 Predictions Officially Scored

So here we are at last. The NBC Schedule of 2012-13 year. And man, NBC is…well…NBC.

I’m not blown away by the new schedule. There are a few interesting moves that I’ll complain about, and then the new shows are very hit a miss for me (they haven’t released the trailers for the show yet, but they will eventually). 

But this is less about the schedule and more about the predictions I made a year ago. I made estimates and guess at where certain shows would end up. You can find what my predictions were on my article about the 2012-12 NBC Fall Schedule. It’s interesting going back and finding what I was right and wrong about. I’m a ref, I want to make sure that I’m going to be correct. This year, I can say that for the most part I was right about a couple NBC shows. However, I was also grossly wrong on others. So how close was I?

(Yes, I understand we have not included the season finales of some shows, but I’m calling it early). 

I was right about:

Harry’s Law: I predicted a huge decline in viewership and ratings because of NBC’s placement against highly-rated competitors. And boy, was I right. Though it’s viewership took a hit, it was the huge drop in key demographic ratings that were the show’s demise. 

Up All Night: I predicted 4.1 million viewers on average. It was 4.3. It was barely renewed, and I predicted it would be risky. I’m proud of this predict. 

Grimm: It did better than Chuck in viewership and ratings (called it) and finished its 1st season run (called it). I said 4 million viewers on average and it did 5 (I was…a little off). But now, the series has a very questionable 2nd season. Will the success continue? Are there enough stories?

Are you There, Vodka?: I said it’d be done before it finished its run. The show was ug. 100% right on that guess. 

Whitney: I predicted an average of 4.2 million average and would be on the bubble. It was 4.5 and was on the bubble. Nailed it. 

Honorable Mentions: L&O: SVU (predicted decline, went from 8.8 to 6.83); Community (predicted decline, went from 4.48 to 3.6); Bent (said it was horrible, and it was)

I was wrong about: 

Prime Suspects: I really thought women would appeal to the lead character. Maybe it should have been on Tuesday nights or Wednesday nights. But honestly, I was completely off. I predicted it would be NBC’s 2nd best new series. It wasn’t even close. It was canned before it even ended. 

The Playboy Club: I hated the show, but I really though NBC would stick to its gut and keep it for the season. But there was so much backlash, and not enough “tastiness” for men. So it floundered worse than I thought. It’s funny I made the comparison to Pan Am…and it also got cancelled. 

Free Agents: Even when the show was going, I still found it hilarious. But not the rest of America. I seriously felt that that entire timeslot on Wednesday was where show went to die this year for NBC. However, that said, I predicted it was going to be the NBC’s best comedy. I weep at that statement. 

Awake: I thought it would have problems getting people to watch in the second season, and have a good 1st. Boy, I was so wrong. It was NBC’s 3rd best new drama, as opposed to my prediction of 1st. Grimm and Smash did pretty well, almost two times better on average. 

30 Rock: I thought it would stay pretty consistent. Instead, it lost a little over 1 million viewers, thus the reason NBC is giving it one last season. 

Honorable mentions: Fear Factor (I seriously thought it would stay), Chuck (I was right about the increasing part. But the increase was from the season premiere on. Overall, viewership was a series low), Parenthood (I thought increase, they were decrease), The Voice (I though The Voice would be more effective than I thought this year. But I thought the same thing about The X Factor. Forgot about “singing competition” fatigue)

So what’s my record? 8-9. Not bad for a first year. 

I’ll be making my predictions on the NBC schedule once the trailers come out. Can’t really determine too much from the two clips I can see so far. Right now, I saw the trailer for Revolution. So now, it’s a Western of the future? I’m impressed…but not impressed either. Not sure of its long-term story arc…or even its short-term…But we’ll see. 

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